January 08, 2025
South China Sea - Zhao Ziwen
The risk of a China-US conflict in the South China Sea is set to rise in 2025, fuelled by incoming president Donald Trump's expected assertive and confrontational approach, a prominent Chinese scholar has warned.
Wu Shicun, founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies and a former policy adviser to Beijing, said the new Trump administration "will be more impulsive and aggressive" than its predecessor on issues relating to the disputed waterway.
In an article published on Saturday by the Chinese foreign ministry's World Affairs Press journal, Wu also predicted that China's stand-offs with the Philippines and Vietnam would continue, as well as the challenges facing the long-delayed code of conduct.
"[Washington] will do so by increasing the scale and level of arms assistance, expanding diplomatic support, and upgrading joint military operations, among other newer tactics."
Wu said the growing assertiveness of Manila's shipping activities and Hanoi's reclamation actions in the South China Sea made it likely that Beijing's disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam would continue.
"The Sino-Philippine conflict will sharpen, and the risk of conflict and untoward developments continues to rise," he said, adding that Manila was likely to continue its "raids" in Scarborough Shoal by organising fishing boats, drones and other civilian forces.
According to Wu, Manila is also likely to push forward with the delimitation of its outer continental shelf in the disputed waters, or even initiate a second arbitration.
