From March 19 to 21, Dr. Wu Shicun, Chairman of the Huayang Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance and Chairman of the Academic Committee of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS), attended the 7th International Forum on Security and Strategy in Beijing. The forum was hosted by the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) of Tsinghua University. Dr. Wu delivered a speech during the session “Global Issues Under the New Order”.
The theme of this forum is “Navigating New Paths in A Reshaping Global Order”. More than 60 experts from China, the US, the UK, Russia, Australia, South Korea, India and other countries attended the forum. Lu Kang, Vice Minister of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee attended the opening ceremony and delivered the keynote speech.
Dr. Wu pointed out in his speech, that currently, the Trump administration has not formed a systematic policy for the South China Sea (SCS) yet, and the current US political, diplomatic and military actions in the SCS are still a continuation of the Biden administration. This is mainly based on three key judgments:
First, the US still views the SCS issues as a strategic tool in its China policy and has granted substantial decision-making authority to institutions such as the military and the State Department.
Second, "maintaining peace while avoiding war" is a major bottom line for the Trump administration when handling international affairs, which also applies to its China policy and the SCS issues.
Third, with the approach of the US midterm elections, the intensification of US domestic political struggles and changes in domestic politics of Taiwan and the Philippines, the possibility of the US provoking China in both the SCS and the Taiwan Strait persists. The US-China rivalry in the SCS and even the Western Pacific faces the possibility of escalating once again.
Dr. Wu also pointed out that, with the ICC arrest of former Philippine President Duterte, the power struggle between the Marcos and Duterte families has intensified. Marcos Jr. is focusing on the midterm elections and using the SCS issue to garner support. The Philippines is likely to use the so-called SCS Arbitration ruling to push for the delimitation of the continental shelf and a "second arbitration", among other methods, to create trouble in the SCS. In the meantime, negotiation on the SCS Code of Conduct (COC) has entered a critical phase. Parties involved have long shown significant divergence on the nature of the COC, the geographical scope of application, and the interest of third parties. The difficulty of reaching a consensus is increasing. The US, Japan, and other external countries are also trying to influence the formulation of rules and order in the SCS through “proxies”, introducing geopolitical competition into the negotiation of COC.
During the forum, Dr. Wu also received an exclusive interview with The Economist’s Editor-in-Chief Zanny Minton Beddoes on issues such as the US-China relations, the SCS situation, and the US-EU relations.
