Tensions could worsen between Beijing and Manila over the disputed South China Sea with "more provocations" expected after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr shored up support in the midterm election, a Chinese maritime analyst says.
Wu Shicun, founder of the government-sponsored think tank the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, also said Beijing and Hanoi could be heading for confrontation over Vietnam's increasing land reclamation activities in the contested Spratly Islands.
He said there was no sign that tensions would ease over the maritime disputes in the South China Sea and the Philippines was now the "most prominent" rival claimant.
Wu Shicun, founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies. Photo: China News Service via Getty Images
Wu made the remarks at a seminar in Beijing on Thursday ahead of the ninth anniversary of a historic ruling by a tribunal in The Hague that dismissed China's claims to large swathes of the resource-rich South China Sea, saying they had "no legal basis". The case was brought by the Philippines and the ruling was rejected by China.
Addressing foreign diplomats, academics and officials, Wu accused Manila of trying to "occupy" new maritime features and to "expand disputes" over Second Thomas Shoal, Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, where a series of run-ins between Chinese and Philippine vessels have taken place in recent months.
He also pointed to the Philippines allowing a US mid-range missile system to be deployed in the north of the country, saying it was an attempt to "disrupt cross-strait peace".
The mid-range capability launcher, also known as Typhon, was stationed in the Philippines in April 2024 during joint exercises with the US, its first overseas deployment. Manila later said it had decided to keep the system indefinitely.
Beijing was angered by the move given the strike capabilities of the ground-based launcher, which can fire Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles with a range of up to 2,000km (1,242 miles) – meaning parts of the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and even southern China would be within reach.
"This not only ties the Philippines to another country's war chariot but also endangers the peace and security of the entire region," Wu said.
Philippine Army spokesman Colonel Louie Dema‑ala added to Beijing's concerns when he said last month that the country would welcome more Typhon missile systems to boost training and deterrence.
The Donald Trump administration has yet to unveil its Indo-Pacific strategy, but Wu expected it to be a "continuation" of the approach under Joe Biden, which he said focused on "strengthening regional military alliances and accelerating forward deployment against China".
President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has shifted the Philippines towards the US since he took office. Photo: EPA-EFE
Wu also said the midterm election victory for Marcos – who has embraced the US since he took office in 2022 – would further consolidate his power, and China should be prepared for more confrontations with the Philippines.
"Marcos Jnr remains relatively stable in power, and as a result there could be more provocations in the South China Sea in the second half of the year," Wu told reporters on the sidelines of the seminar.
"From China's perspective, it must be prepared to respond, including the possibility of a second arbitration case," he said, referring to a potential case against Beijing over environmental damage that Philippine officials say has been caused by China.
The ruling in favour of the Philippines in the first case was made on July 12, 2016 by five judges in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. It has become a thorny issue in Beijing's ties with rival claimants to the waterway, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei – all members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
During an Asean-China summit in Kuala Lumpur on Thursday, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan urged all parties involved in the South China Sea to act with "wisdom and prudence" to ensure that "geopolitical tensions do not escalate or threaten to undermine security and global trade".
In Beijing on Thursday, Wu also raised concern over Vietnam's expanding land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands.
Vietnam has ramped up land reclamation since October 2021, adding more than 8.5 sq km (3.3 sq miles) of new land on 11 features it controls in the disputed archipelago up to May, according to a recent report by Beijing-based think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative.
It said the work was done using powerful cutter suction dredgers manufactured in the Netherlands. Citing satellite imagery, it said military-related facilities such as harbour basins, wharves and runways were also being built on eight of those features.
Wu said that while Beijing had been largely quiet about Hanoi's land reclamation, that was likely to change.
"China is unlikely to remain silent or restrained forever," he said. "When pushed beyond a certain point, these simmering tensions will inevitably erupt into open conflict."
From: South China Morning Post, July 11, 2025
